Negative Blogs

The plane went down about 100 miles from the border in what analysts say may have been a defection attempt.

A North Korean military aircraft crashed into a cornfield in northeastern China about 100 miles from the border in what analysts believe was a failed defection attempt, the Chinese government said Wednesday.

The pilot was killed in the crash Tuesday, according to China’s official Xinhua news service, which also reported that the government “is in communication on the matter with the North Korean side.”

Chinese authorities released little information about the crash which took place in Fushun prefecture, Liaoning province. But photographs reportedly taken by villagers were widely distributed on Chinese blog sites showing the wreckage with a red star in a blue circle, the insignia of the North Korean air force. North Korea’s first air division’s 24th regiment is headquartered in Uiju, just north of the border city of Sinuiju, and pilots frequently train near the Yalu River which forms the border with China.

The aircraft was identified as a Russian-made MiG fighter, most likely a MiG-21, although early reports had described it as a helicopter.

South Korean analysts said they believed the pilot was attempting to escape his impoverished homeland, possibly heading toward Russia, which is more hospitable to defectors than China. Along the way, he might have run out of fuel and attempted an emergency landing in the fields.

“This couldn’t be a training accident — the border is clearly marked,” said Kim Chul-woo of the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. “An attempted defection is the only plausible explanation.”

A respected military analyst in Seoul said that South Korean intelligence is still trying to determine what happened.

“I’m skeptical of what the Chinese government is saying,” said the analyst, who asked not to be quoted by name. The analyst said he believed the plane might have carried one or more passengers besides the pilot and might not have crashed accidentally.

Among the theories in circulation is that the pilot was heading toward a nearby airport in Shenyang and ran out of fuel. The plane was reported not to have sustained serious damage, making it conceivable that a passenger escaped.

Defections have increased in 2010 amid growing food scarcities in isolated North Korea, with most people escaping by foot across the border into China. However, there have been several famous incidents, one in 1983 and another in 1996, in which North Korean air force captains flew their planes across the demilitarized zone into South Korea.

By Barbara Demick

In northeastern China, people look over the wreckage of a North Korean military aircraft. (Yonhap / AFP/Getty Images / August 18, 2010)

The U.S. will send a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to South Korea’s west coast in the coming months for more joint drills that have sparked opposition from China.

“Part of the sequence of exercises that we conduct will be a return of the George Washington, including exercising in the Yellow Sea,” Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told reporters yesterday in Washington, referring to the strip of water between the Korean peninsula and China. There will be more joint maneuvers over the “next several months,” both in the peninsula’s western and eastern waters, he said.

The USS George Washington took part in July 25-28 exercises off South Korea’s eastern coast designed to deter North Korea from further provocations after the communist country was accused of sinking the South Korean warship Cheonan in March. China says it is “firmly opposed” to any threatening foreign military activities near its shores as it resists a U.S. push to scale down China’s presence in the South China Sea.

China, North Korea’s largest trading partner and political ally, has resisted blaming Kim Jong Il’s regime for attacking the Cheonan, an incident that claimed the lives of 46 sailors. South Korea remains technically at war with North Korea after their 1950-1953 civil war ended in a cease-fire.

North Korea has repeatedly threatened “physical retaliation” against the U.S.-South Korean military maneuvers since U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the plans last month during a visit to Seoul.

No Threat

North Korea “should not feel in any way threatened by these exercises, while at the same time it should be very, very clear that further military action will not be tolerated,” Morrell said yesterday. “We’re going to hit all the various kinds of exercises that can be conducted,” including anti- submarine and bombing exercises, he added.

South Korea yesterday began its own anti-submarine drills in its western waters that are set to last for five days. Its annual joint Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercise with the U.S. will take place between Aug. 16 and 26.

Tensions between the U.S. and China over the seas between Korea and Vietnam have intensified this year. China cut off military ties with the U.S. to protest planned arms sales to Taiwan. Last month, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi sparred over China’s claims to sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea.

At a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi, Clinton signaled her intent to intercede in the disputes in the region.

Yesterday, the U.S. confirmed it is in talks with Vietnam to share nuclear fuel and civilian nuclear technology, provoking an angry reaction from China.

The nuclear discussions with Vietnam underline “double standards” by the U.S. as it promotes denuclearization, the China Daily newspaper cited Teng Jianqun, deputy-director of the China Arms Control and Disarmament Association, as saying yesterday.

By Bomi Lim

Aircraft carrier USS George Washington departs Busan, South Korea, on Sunday, July 25, 2010.

In a move that is antagonizing North Korea and irking China, South Korea commenced a major naval exercise in the Yellow Sea Thursday, the largest since 46 South Korean sailors died in March in the sinking of a warship.

The five-day exercise involves some 4,500 personnel and all four branches of the military, according to South Korea’s Yonhap news agency.

Seoul, which oversaw an international investigation into the March sinking of the Cheonan, claims a North Korean submarine sank the corvette and is demanding an apology. A multinational investigation also found North Korea responsible. Pyongyang has vehemently denied the accusation.

Prior to the Cheonan’s sinking, the South Korean navy had largely discounted the threat of submarines in the Yellow Sea, due to the shallow waters in the area.

North Korea said via state media that it would undertake “strong physical retaliation” and warned fishermen to stay clear of the Northern Limit Line, the disputed maritime border between the Koreas.

The drills amount to an “undisguised military intrusion,” Pyongyang has said.

“The army and people of the DPRK are closely watching every move of [South Korean President] Lee Myung-bak’s group of traitors. And if the puppet warmongers dare ignite a war, they will mercilessly destroy the provokers and their stronghold by mobilizing most powerful war tactics and offensive means beyond imagination,” the Secretariat of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea said, according to North Korea’s state-run news agency KCNA.

“Raising issue with the legitimate, defensive exercise is a provocation in itself,” South Korean Rear Adm. Kim Kyung-sik retorted Wednesday, speaking to local reporters.

Meanwhile, China, which has refused to condemn North Korea over the alleged torpedo attack and which remains Pyongyang’s closest strategic ally, is reportedly carrying out air defense drills on its Yellow Sea coast across from the Korean peninsula.

Given North Korea’s decrepit military, experts say the chances of a naval attack on well-prepared South Korean forces are small.

“The North Koreans have to rely on asymmetric capabilities,” said Dan Pinkston, who heads the international Crisis Group’s Seoul offices. “In a straight-up fight they are not that capable.”

Deadly North Korean strikes in past years — a commando raid on the South Korean presidential mansion in 1968; terrorist bombings in 1983 and 1987; and naval clashes in 1999 and 2002 — all used the element of surprise, an element that would be difficult to spring on the large, alert force South Korea is fielding for the maneuvers.

If North Korea retaliates, it will likely be with a weapons test rather than a direct confrontation, said one expert.

“They do not do eye-for-eye, tit-for-tat responses,” said Choi Jin-wook of the Korea Institute of National Unification. “Shooting a missile or testing a weapon or some kind of diplomatic action are possible, but I don’t think there will be a military reaction.”

The exercise does not include any U.S. assets, leading some commentators to wonder whether Washington is wary of angering Beijing in the Yellow Sea.

South Korean and U.S. forces conducted exercises together in the Sea of Japan last month. Those exercises included an anti-sub infiltration component — intended to thwart a submarine attack on a ship.

If the joint exercises continue, such a move could be part of a gradual build-up of American pressure on China.

“The U.S. is slowly containing China in other places, and they could exercise in the East Sea in the future,” said the Korea Institute of National Unification’s Choi. “I think the U.S. is very deliberately pressuring China.”

The warship sinking has heightened tensions between the two neighbors who fought a war from 1950 to 1953. The war ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty, meaning the two nations are still technically at war. About 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea.

By the CNN

A South Korean destroyer drops depth charges during anti-submarine drills on Thursday.

The largest joint military exercise by the United States and South Korea in years is underway in the Sea of Japan.  These war games were called in response to North Korea’s sinking of the South Korean navy ship, Cheonan, an incident that killed 46 sailors in March. 

Throughout the day, on calm seas and under clear skies, F-18 Hornet fighter jets and other aircraft were catapulted from the flight deck of this nuclear-powered carrier.

About 200 aircraft are participating in the four-day drill, known as Invincible Spirit.  Some took part in live fire exercises.  For the first time, an exercise here also includes four of the U.S. Air Force’s most advanced fighters, F-22 Raptors.

In the sea are 20 American and South Korean naval vessels, advancing no closer than 200-kilometers south of the maritime boundary with North Korea in the eastern sea. 

In the Command Direction Center of the aircraft carrier, U.S. Navy Commander Peter Walczak says the exercise is similar to what routinely occurs on the carrier, except for the additional component of cross-training with South Korean forces.   A key component in the drill is detecting enemy submarines and defending against them. 

North Korea’s threat to unleash a nuclear attack in response to the joint war games, Commander Walczak says, is not causing undue alarm for the U.S. 7th Fleet.

“The only extra precaution is that, maybe, were more observant to what is going on in the area.  A little more sensitive to intel reports, what have you.  The ship itself, the airplane flying, the schedule, it is pretty much what we do with standards operations.  Our alert posture is not necessarily any higher than any other time during normal operations,” he said. 

The carrier’s strike group is under the command of Rear Admiral Dan Cloyd.  He calls the current exercise, “purely defensive in nature” and says there’s no reason for North Korea to be provocative.

“Our intent is to improve defense capabilities in areas such as anti-submarine warfare, air defense and anti-surface warfare,” Cloyd said. “Our intent is not to provoke reactions from any nation, be it North Korea, or any other here in the Western Pacific region.”

North Korea denies responsibility for the sinking of the Cheonan in the Yellow Sea on March 26.  The incident has escalated tension on the Korean peninsula, which, on Tuesday, marks the 57th anniversary of the armistice that halted the Korean War.  The two sides have yet to sign a peace treaty.

By Steve Herman

The aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73) departs Busan, Republic of Korea, 25 July 2010

South Korea is talking tough a day after it revealed what it views as irrefutable evidence North Korea sank one of its navy ships. North Korea has threatened war over any retaliation, and says it wants to send a team to inspect the evidence.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak convened his top security ministers Friday for an emergency meeting. He said North Korea’s attack on the South’s navy ship violates international law.

The president said the matter is a military provocation and a violation of both the United Nations charter and the inter-Korean armistice agreement.

“It is a grave and serious matter,” he said. “We cannot make a single mistake in implementing countermeasures.”

The ship, the Cheonan, was ripped in half and sunk by a mysterious explosion in late March, killing 46 South Korean sailors. An international investigative team presented extensive forensic evidence Thursday supporting accusations a North Korean submarine fired a torpedo at the vessel.

On Friday, South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young warned North Korea will now face consequences.

“Even in a boxing match,” said Kim, “the fighters agree to wear gloves. North Korea has stepped over that limit and for that we will make it pay.”

A military reprisal is next to impossible for the South, because it could escalate almost overnight into a much deadlier war. South Korea is taking its case to the United Nations Security Council, which Seoul hopes will agree on a way to punish the North with sanctions or other coordinated action.

North Korea has called the Cheonan investigation a “fabrication,” and said any retaliation could trigger a war and prompt it to cancel all agreements with Seoul.
Pyongyang also says it wants to dispatch its own team to inspect the investigators’ findings. South Korea says it will refer that request to the United Nations commission that monitors the 1953 armistice between the Koreas.

Kim Yong-hyun, North Korea studies professor at Seoul’s Dongguk University, predicts the North’s plan probably will not be accepted. Kim said the idea of North Korea sending its own investigators to the South can be seen as a political move.  “It will be very hard for South Korea to approve the idea, even if the U.N. armistice commission gets involved,” said Kim.

Baek Seung-joo, a researcher with the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, says the North’s threats of war are a sign of panic. He said North Korea would never have dreamed that South Korea would find fragments of its torpedo, which they thought would be destroyed with the other evidence. Baek adds the investigation prevented the North from committing the perfect crime.

By Kurt Achin

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak

North Korea fired artillery rounds toward its disputed sea border with South Korea on Wednesday, prompting a barrage of warning shots from the South’s military and raising tensions on the divided peninsula.

No casualties or damage were reported, and analysts said the volley — which the North announced was part of a military drill — was likely a move by Pyongyang to highlight the need for a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War.

North Korea fired about 30 artillery rounds into the sea from its western coast and the South immediately responded with 100 shots from a marine base on an island near the sea border, an officer at the Joint Chiefs of Staff in Seoul said. The North said it would continue to fire rounds.

He said the North’s artillery fire landed in its own waters while the South fired into the air. The officer spoke on condition of anonymity because of department policy.

The western sea border — drawn by the American-led U.N. Command at the close of the 1950-53 Korean War — is a constant source of tension between the two Koreas, with the North insisting the line be moved farther south.

Navy ships of the two Koreas fought a brief gunbattle in November that left one North Korean sailor dead and three others wounded. They engaged in similar bloody skirmishes in 1999 and 2002.

North Korea issued a statement later Wednesday saying it had fired artillery off its coast as part of an annual military drill and would continue doing so.

Such drills “will go on in the same waters in the future,” the General Staff of the (North) Korean People’s Army said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.

The North fired more shots later Wednesday, but South Korea didn’t respond, a Defense Ministry official said, also requesting anonymity due to department policy.

The exchange of fire came two days after the North designated two no-sail zones in the area, including some South Korean-held waters, through March 29.

The North has sent a series of mixed signals to the South recently, combining offers of dialogue on economic cooperation with military threats, including one this month to destroy South Korea’s presidential palace. South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young, meanwhile, angered Pyongyang by saying Seoul’s military should launch a pre-emptive strike if there was a clear indication the North was preparing a nuclear attack.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry sent the North’s military a message Wednesday expressing serious concern about the firing and saying it fostered “unnecessary tension” between the two sides.

It also urged the North to retract the no-sail zones, calling them a “grave provocation” and a violation of the Korean War armistice. The war ended with a truce, but not a formal peace treaty.

Separately, South Korea’s point man on North Korea criticized Pyongyang for raising tension near the sea border.

“This kind of North Korean attitude is quite disappointing,” Unification Minister Hyun In-taek told a security forum in Seoul.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency said it was the first time that North Korea has fired artillery toward the sea border. The Joint Chiefs of Staff officer said the North Korean artillery shells were believed to have fallen into the no-sail zones about 1.75 miles (3 kilometers) north of the maritime border.

Top South Korean presidential secretary Chung Chung-kil convened an emergency meeting of security-related officials on behalf of President Lee Myung-bak, who was making a state visit to India, according to the presidential Blue House. It said Lee was informed of the incident.

Yoo Ho-yeol, a professor of North Korean studies at Korea University in South Korea, said the North’s action was aimed at highlighting the need for a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War by showing that the peninsula is still a war zone.

“It’s applying pressure on the U.S. and South Korea,” Yoo said. He said North Korea also was expressing anger over South Korea’s lukewarm response to a series of recent gestures seeking dialogue.

Earlier this month, North Korea called for the signing of a peace treaty and the lifting of sanctions as conditions for its return to stalled nuclear disarmament talks it quit last year.

The U.S. and South Korea, however, brushed aside the North’s demands, saying they can happen only after it returns to the disarmament negotiations and reports progress in denuclearization.

Despite the exchange of fire, the capitals of the two Koreas were calm.

North Koreans in Pyongyang wearing thick winter coats walked briskly through the streets while a female police officer directed traffic and a crowded tram passed by, according to footage shot by broadcaster APTN.

The military tensions had little effect on South Korean financial markets. Seoul’s benchmark stock index fell less than 1 percent, while South Korea’s currency, the won, rose against the U.S. dollar. Hard money training.